Brace yourself!

[Dougie]

1. - Diet Snapple 16 oz for $1.29 = $10.32 per gallon
2. - Lipton Ice Tea 16 oz for $1.19 = $9.52 per gallon
3. - Gatorade 20 oz for $1.59 = $10.17 per gallon
4. - Ocean Spray 16 oz for $1.25 = $10.00 per gallon
5. - Quart of Milk 16 oz for $1.59 = $6.32 per gallon
6. - Evian (water) 9 oz for $1.49 = $21.19 per gallon
7. - STP Brake Fluid 12 oz for $3.15 = $33.60 per gallon
8. - Vicks Nyquil 6 oz for $8.35 = $178.13 per gallon
9. - Pepto Bismol 4 oz for $3.85 = $123.20 per gallon
10. - Whiteout 7 oz for $1.39 = $254.17 per gallon
11. - Scope 1.5 oz for $0.99 = $84.84 per gallon

So next time you're at the pump, be glad your car doesn't run on Nyquil or Scope or Whiteout!

[richard c.]

The reason Atlanta had panic gas buying on Wednesday, is that we were warned that most of our gas stations would run out of gas, and get NO more for awhile. Two major pipelines that supply Atlanta and surrounding areas stopped because the pumping stations in New Orleans are completely flooded. Several gas stations were out of fuel last night and the price gouging began. Most prices went up $.50 to $.75 and a few "BP" stations posted $6.09 for premium. Our governor stepped in and said they would be heavily fined for price gouging. We had several people leave work to "top up" their gas tank. There are now gas lines forming at the stations that have gas. I have heard that we may get the pipeline going soon.

I know we all should be more fuel efficient, but over 3,000,000 people here didn't see this coming! I didn't know how fragile our fuel supply really is.

We are getting some of the survivers coming into the city now, so this is going to change all our lives around here for awhile. I hope it makes us all realize how fragile life is, when compared to the power of natural disasters. We had several families escape New Orleans only to be caught in a tornado, here in Georgia!

Richard C.

[Titanium Dome]

I got a new vehicle from work as a benefit and decided to get a "compromise" vehicle: one that would meet my day-to-day work needs and also that would meet my personal economic and environmental goals. So I ended up with a mid-size "moderate" SUV with a V-6 and a manual tranny.

I can generally go more than a week betweeen fill ups, getting about 23 mpg around Los Angeles. Two weeks ago I filled up for around $42.50. Yesterday, I tried to fill up, but the gas station pump shut off at $50. Apparently there's a $50 limit on pumps in some of the neighborhoods I travel to.

Three things:
1) They better raise the limit because soon $50 will only be half a tank for an average fill up.
2) I wonder if I can a) do my job, b) satisfy the need to economize, and c) keep my board from jumping on my back for being "wasteful" if I recommend buying a newer, smaller, more efficient vehicle.
3) How do my employees pay for and maintain their Silverado, Avalanche, Suburban, and F-150 gas guzzling full-size, king cab, 4WD, V-8 urban cuisers? It has to be credit. They don't make that much money, and their lifestyles are not being scaled back. What happens when the credit runs out?

I've got 20+ trucks that go out each day. The transportation budget is a shambles. I called in all the gas cards because people get desperate and start stealing gas for personal use. Things will be tough for all of us, though never as tough as for the victims of Katrina.

I'm glad the Prez decided to end his month-long vacation early to go back to Washington to start thinking about planning a meeting on how to handle this if it becomes a problem. If you saw him this morning on TV, he's clueless--a vacuous, purposeless moron, waiting for someone (Dick Cheney?) to tell him what to do. Don't worry about him, though, he and his buds somehow will pull through with the dividends on their energy stocks.

[Lancer]

If you saw him this morning on TV, he's clueless--a vacuous, purposeless moron, waiting for someone (Dick Cheney?) to tell him what to do. Don't worry about him, though, he and his buds somehow will pull through with the dividends on their energy stocks.

Hey! Simmer down! You get what you pay for!

Actually, I demand that we outsource the job of President overseas.
I would like to see a really hot babe from India get the job. This voting for a President from two archaic parties with their heads stuck so far up each others asses isn't getting the job done. To be blunt, it's sooo last century. Let's get a hundred or so babes from overseas lined up and vote the best one in. Oh, and English as a spoken language is optional... a great pair of legs and a decent rack is not. At a news conference when she looks like a deer caught in the headlights we can all just say "Aww, she's so damn cute!" instead of "What a vacuous, purposeless moron!"

[JBL Dog]

The reason Atlanta had panic gas buying on Wednesday, is that we were warned that most of our gas stations would run out of gas, and get NO more for awhile. Two major pipelines that supply Atlanta and surrounding areas stopped because the pumping stations in New Orleans are completely flooded. Several gas stations were out of fuel last night and the price gouging began. Most prices went up $.50 to $.75 and a few "BP" stations posted $6.09 for premium. Our governor stepped in and said they would be heavily fined for price gouging. We had several people leave work to "top up" their gas tank. There are now gas lines forming at the stations that have gas. I have heard that we may get the pipeline going soon.

I know we all should be more fuel efficient, but over 3,000,000 people here didn't see this coming! I didn't know how fragile our fuel supply really is.

We are getting some of the survivers coming into the city now, so this is going to change all our lives around here for awhile. I hope it makes us all realize how fragile life is, when compared to the power of natural disasters. We had several families escape New Orleans only to be caught in a tornado, here in Georgia!

Richard C.

I feel for you guys in Atlanta. We're in pretty good shape (so I've heard) regarding supply in the St. Louis area. There hasn't been any panic buying or limits to what we can buy. In fact, several of the stations around here have pulled prices back to $2.69.9 amid allegations of price gouging from our Atty. General.

[boputnam]

They don't make that much money, and their lifestyles are not being scaled back. What happens when the credit runs out?

This is the crux of the impact. High fuel prices are not inflationary - they are deflationary. High fuel costs takes away disposable income from other purchases/expenditures. We all do just a little bit less every day, as gasoline takes more cash from our pocket.

Look at the yield on the 10-year bond - diving like a knife. The Bond market sees trouble looming...

[Mr. Widget]

I'm glad the Prez decided to end his month-long vacation early to go back to Washington to start thinking about planning a meeting on how to handle this if it becomes a problem. If you saw him this morning on TV, he's clueless--a vacuous, purposeless moron, waiting for someone (Dick Cheney?) to tell him what to do. Don't worry about him, though, he and his buds somehow will pull through with the dividends on their energy stocks.

You can't blame the Prez for everything... but you did accurately describe him...

The Bond market sees trouble looming...

Who doesn't see trouble looming... oil is only part of the problem... fuel to the fire, pardon the pun...

Widget

[rek50]

"Hey! Simmer down! You get what you pay for! "The best Government Money can buy. I think it was Albert E that saw the "Perpetually Rejuvenated Illusion"(Government) and called it as such. The Illusion of choice helps to calm the masses. Make no mistake, in order to be in the "Game", you must play the "Game". That "Son of a Bush" is just a player, like the Players in the other camp. It's a well calculated science. The preservation of privilage requires the exercise of Power....The power to inform or DIS-inform, to the extent that so many sides of so many issues, blurr logic and/or a meaningful change/defense. It's the old "Divide and Conquer". , , Let's see now, does the red wire go to the black terminal, or................................................ .......

[edgewound]

1. - Diet Snapple 16 oz for $1.29 = $10.32 per gallon
2. - Lipton Ice Tea 16 oz for $1.19 = $9.52 per gallon
3. - Gatorade 20 oz for $1.59 = $10.17 per gallon
4. - Ocean Spray 16 oz for $1.25 = $10.00 per gallon
5. - Quart of Milk 16 oz for $1.59 = $6.32 per gallon
6. - Evian (water) 9 oz for $1.49 = $21.19 per gallon
7. - STP Brake Fluid 12 oz for $3.15 = $33.60 per gallon
8. - Vicks Nyquil 6 oz for $8.35 = $178.13 per gallon
9. - Pepto Bismol 4 oz for $3.85 = $123.20 per gallon
10. - Whiteout 7 oz for $1.39 = $254.17 per gallon
11. - Scope 1.5 oz for $0.99 = $84.84 per gallon

So next time you're at the pump, be glad your car doesn't run on Nyquil or Scope or Whiteout!

Drink enough Nyquil and you won't care

[JBL Dog]

1. - Diet Snapple 16 oz for $1.29 = $10.32 per gallon
2. - Lipton Ice Tea 16 oz for $1.19 = $9.52 per gallon
3. - Gatorade 20 oz for $1.59 = $10.17 per gallon
4. - Ocean Spray 16 oz for $1.25 = $10.00 per gallon
5. - Quart of Milk 16 oz for $1.59 = $6.32 per gallon
6. - Evian (water) 9 oz for $1.49 = $21.19 per gallon
7. - STP Brake Fluid 12 oz for $3.15 = $33.60 per gallon
8. - Vicks Nyquil 6 oz for $8.35 = $178.13 per gallon
9. - Pepto Bismol 4 oz for $3.85 = $123.20 per gallon
10. - Whiteout 7 oz for $1.39 = $254.17 per gallon
11. - Scope 1.5 oz for $0.99 = $84.84 per gallon

So next time you're at the pump, be glad your car doesn't run on Nyquil or Scope or Whiteout!

At $4.99 a six-pack, a gallon of beer is about $9.00. Besides, beer and any of the above items we deem too expensive, we don't have to purchase. Most of us don't have a choice when it comes to purchase fuel.

[Regis]

All,
Certainly Oil is a huge concern, especially with supply and demand and as Bo so eloquently pointed out, refining is the main choke point (has been for years). But for all this, tell me if none of you see some serious storm clouds on the horizon for our economy?

Living in SoCal, we see a hypermagnified version of the economy. It kind of pissed me off a couple of months ago when I saw people buying houses at unbelievable prices and still had two brand new SUV's in the driveway, dirtbikes in the garage and an RV to boot.

So a couple of months ago, using my meager skills as a Senior Cost & Schedule Analyst in the areospace industry, I started doing what I do best, digging out facts and figures. Nope, no hidden conspiracy theories here, it's all out in the open for anybody who cares to scratch at the shiny surface of the US Economy and see what lies underneath. And let me tell you, it has me seriously scared $hitless.

I perused a variety of government and news sources including many worthwhile blogs, because I'm finding out the TV media is really pablum scripted for the masses who care more about Brad and Jen or Survivor than boring stuff, like what makes up our economy.

Some items.

2/3 of our GDP is driven by us buying stuff. We have been cashing out the equity in our homes at an ever-increasing rate and using the money to buy 'more stuff'. This feeds back into the system as MBS's (mortgage backed securities), ABS's (Asset Backed Securities) and even SMBS's (Stripped Mortgage Back Securities). Joe Consumer has eagerly taken on more and more debt to the tune of over a trillion dollars. Worldwide credit debt is at record levels. The UK, Australia, South Korea among a few. Look it up and graph it out, courtesy of the Federal Reserve Board.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releas...c_hist_sa.html

Freddy Mac and Fannie Mae have been bundling the loans into packages of MBS's, ABS's and other unique instruments and selling them along with the risks to eager investors both foreign and domestic looking for high yeilds. These risks are hedged using financial arbitrage. There is an unbelievable amount of tricky derivative games they are playing to minimiize risk and exposure via derivatives. Derivatives are one of the fastest growing segments of the financial markets.

A look at recent Bloomberg news is showing the cracks as last week, the Fed called fourteen banks to discuss derivative controls. Today, Freddy Mac lost nearly 60% in earnings in the first half of this year. Both Freddy Mac and Fannie Mae have serious accounting problems and 'behind-the-scenes' battles going on in Congress. Fannie Mae holds $8 Trillion dollars of home mortgages and has been busy divesting itself of it's more 'creative' loans as fast as it can.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050831/earns...mac.html?.v=10

OPEC and Asia are worried about us. Greenspan warned us last friday about risk and speculation in his usual complex diatribe, but my feeling is that we're in deep bandini. In my opinion, the American Consumer is tapped out. We've finally reached a level of Debt Saturation. The demand for buying mo' stuff is going to be in a downward trend, because there's only so much debt you can service with 'x' amount of income. The commercial with the guy who has all the toys and new house and proclaims '...and I'm in debt up to my eyeballs' pretty much sums it up. I personally know people who are tottering on the edge. What's going to happen to the world economy when Joe Consumer quits buying stuff in record levels? Remember, many foreign countries, have a weak GDP and are unable to support their own industries internally through consumer spending (with the cheap wages offered in places like China, who's got money to burn?)

To sum it up, the Fed can no longer control the situation through rate hikes or arresting the rate. The market has figured out a way around all of that nusiance and is now creating money all on it's own, with the subsequent result being excessive Liquidity being injected into the economy. This kind of money loves assets, thus the incredible spike in housing prices in the south and both coasts. And as the assets gain value, guess what, the excess equity is pulled out and reinjected into the system twice. Once by the consumer and the second time by the financial institutions selling the MBS's. So it's a beast that has been feeding upon itself.

I only have a small knowledge of this, but here's some linkees. Maybe I'm wrong and I'll accept that. Maybe Joe Consumer can keep spending like there's no tommorow and never have to worry about paying it off.

OPEC August 05 Monthly report
http://www.opec.org/home/Monthly%20O...5/MR082005.htm

Go to the August 05 and click

(PDF, be patient!) Very good analysis of the refinery problems, as well as what a lot of people know even less about, the evolving quality of crude (Sweet vs. Sour). My roomie was in Operations at Texaco and very knowledgable about petro resources. You have to have special refineries to refine sour crude (high in sulfer) as the sulfer and salts at high temps are very corrosive to regular refineries and everything has to be heavy-duty and utilize special coatings.

Note the highlights of the World Economy, specifically page 7. "The Housing Market is particularly vulnerable and any weakness in house prices would have a rapid effect on GDP growth through a reduction in the ability of householders to extract funds from the equity of their homes"


From the Fed

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boardd...27/default.htm
Remarks by Governor Donald L. Kohn
At a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
August 27, 2005

Some salient qoutes...

"At the intersection of market developments and monetary policy, he has led the Federal Reserve's efforts to understand the implications of changing financial technology, such as the growing ease of housing equity extraction, and to use the newly available information about market expectations and the price of risk embodied in market prices. "

"A particularly interesting strand of the debate about excessive risk-taking concerns the interaction of monetary policy and perceptions of risk in financial markets. Some analysts are concerned that several aspects of the conduct of monetary policy in the United States have induced market participants to reduce their expectations about risk too far, setting up the financial markets and the economy for an unpleasant and possibly destabilizing surprise. "

:The Greenspan doctrine has had a perceptible influence on the evolution of markets and the regulatory structure that applies to them. Raghu Rajan voices some concerns about this evolution. In particular, he posits that the shift from depository intermediation to professional asset management has increased tail risk to socially excessive levels and has left the world more vulnerable to rare but potentially very serious tail events; he suggests some ways in which regulation should be increased.:

Mmmm...

Food for thought... It sure was an education for me.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boardd...72/default.htm

Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
Closing remarks
At a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
August 27, 2005

" The configuration of asset prices is already an integral part of our evaluation of the large array of forces that influence financial stability and economic growth. But given our current state of knowledge, I find it difficult to envision central banks successfully targeting asset prices any time soon. However, I certainly do not rule out that future work could improve our understanding of asset price behavior, and with it, the conduct of monetary policy."

In other words, the Fed no longer has any meaningful control over the amount of liquidity entering the market...

Very insightful post by Doug Noland. Get pass the two year old financials by scrolling down and review
Contemplating the Evolution From the Way We Were to The Way It Is

http://64.29.208.119/archive_comm_ar...tent_idx=23958


It's easier for most Americans to blissfully ignore what's really going on and just sit on the couch, flip on the tube and rip open that bag of potato chips.

[edgewound]

I agree to the merits of the previous dissertations on the economy...however...corporations are sitting on more cash than at any other time in history...money keeps flooding into mutual funds and specifically new technologies and R&D....we're about to embark on a new scientific, disruptive-nanotechnology driven manufacturing world. Truly exciting horizons...and biblically ominous goings-on in the world today. I don't know whether I should be glad to be alive in this day and age....or terrified of what's coming. So I do my best to take care of MY finances and family...and I've pretty much stopped being envious of the guy next door with all the toys and the mortgage and shrinking equity that goes with it. If I want to drive a Mercedes...I'll rent one for the weekend. Otherwise I'll keep driving my paid-for 1997 Ford Explorer with Michelin tires and wait till I really need a new car...and can afford it. After all....it's my decision....isn't it? I believe the majority of Americans are actually pretty smart...and fortunately, what we see on television isn't representative of that.

[Regis]

So I do my best to take care of MY finances and family...and I've pretty much stopped being envious of the guy next door with all the toys and the mortgage and shrinking equity that goes with it. Otherwise I'll keep driving my paid-for 1997 Ford Explorer with Michelin tires and wait till I really need a new car...and can afford it. After all....it's my decision....isn't it? I believe the majority of Americans are actually pretty smart...and fortunately, what we see on television isn't representative of that.

I think that's very prudent of you. I'm of the same thought, but I can't afford a house here (no surprise as only a very small percentage of Californians, can afford one .... at this time). And yes, it is your decision and I applaud the fact that you're going take care of YOUR finances, but let me throw in another thought here.

Most Americans are probably pretty smart, but as consumers, I believe many of misled and deluded ourselves into leading a lifestyle we can't afford (I'm not one of these, I drive an even older crappier car than you do) and the effects of the fallout are going to be huge. I'm talking worldwide economic shock of a proportion never seen before in history and ALL of us will be affected somehow. So with my limited knowledge, I'll degress to the so-called experts, because hey, maybe I'm the one being fooled here and by not consuming, I'm missing out on the gluttonous feast that's been going on.

Wall Street Journal
http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc...og08312005.htm


Morgan Stanley's, Stephen Roach
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata...i.html#anchor0

Part II
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata...50829-mon.html

Andy Xie's viewpoint (and after all, it's only a viewpoint, but if you dig and do the research, the numbers are there) But if it's true, it's pretty friggin' radical. Think big picture.

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata...50830-tue.html

[edgewound]

Most Americans are probably pretty smart, but as consumers, I believe many of misled and deluded ourselves into leading a lifestyle we can't afford

Well that's nothing new...been going on for decades...and will continue

(I'm not one of these, I drive an even older crappier car than you do)

Hey...My Explorer is not crappy....lol

and the effects of the fallout are going to be huge. I'm talking worldwide economic shock of a proportion never seen before in history and ALL of us will be affected somehow. So with my limited knowledge, I'll degress to the so-called experts, because hey, maybe I'm the one being fooled here and by not consuming, I'm missing out on the gluttonous feast that's been going on.

Once we all succumb to the doomsday scenario...it's all over...

Wall Street Journal
http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc...og08312005.htm


Morgan Stanley's, Stephen Roach
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata...i.html#anchor0

Part II
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata...50829-mon.html

Andy Xie's viewpoint (and after all, it's only a viewpoint, but if you dig and do the research, the numbers are there) But if it's true, it's pretty friggin' radical. Think big picture.

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata...50830-tue.html

As far as Morgan Stanley's analysis goes...weren't alot of those guys indicted for fraud?

Keep your chin up, Regis...when foreclosures start to happen because of overspending...you'll be in that position to buy someone else's gluttony at a discount

[Regis]

That's what I'm waiting for! Pick up a house on the cheep! Just kidding about your 97' Explorer, the main reason the Escort is what it is, is because it's a rolling locker room for my mountain biking activities and it gets my butt to work (no, the girls won't be looking at it and worse, the stereo barely works, FOMOCO or is that MOFOCO ). Oh well, at least my sport uses a bare minimum of fossil fuels (I didn't say none, because it takes energy to build anything).

As far as indictments, I don't think there's a finance house out there that hasn't been dirty at one point. Think of the big three, KPMG among them and did any of them tell us about Enron? Uh-uh. But I'm not really looking at it as "Doomsday" as much as I'm percieving it as a 'Correction'. Because the way I see it, it's wa-a-ay out of whack. Like Gary Lammert in the Economic Fractalist says, Debts and Deficits matter.

Thanks for your response!